Blood Angel wrote:Two reasons Chris
1) It's actually very difficult to play. The choice of when to use harrow to ramp or win is tight. Matt M lost game 1 at the GPT to me as I ramped to 4 mountains and a forest in play by the end of turn 3/4 with a Valukut in play. Game 2 and 3 I lost due to never finding a Valukut or search artifact to go get one.
2) The other tier 1 decks will beat it sensless with a properly prepared sideboard - Convincing Mirage wrecks you in a U/W match up, Vampires and Jund can hit you hard with discard. All of them also have access to Tectonic Edge now which I expect will be more and more played with the new man-lands.
I can’t speak for how hard the Valakut deck is to play, but to comment on my games with naya against Matt H at the GPT:
I misplayed terribly in game 1 and used knight of the reliquary to tutor for the mana I wanted to develop my position, thinking I could get the tectonic edge next turn and I’d be better positioned to close from there; Matt managed to trigger two Valakuts four times each the following turn off a harrow which I hadn’t accounted for and killed me from about 18-19 life.
Post board my game plan needed to focus on getting life gain active and developing an aggressive board position. One of the games I got down a fast baneslayer and got out of range. I have enough card advantage to overload Matt’s removal and he can’t deal damage fast enough to race me so I think a fast baneslayer that isn’t immediately answered is a huge problem for his deck. The other game Matt grabbed some extra mountains from harrowing a forest and left himself screwed for green thereafter which I think cost him the game.
The feel I had from the game was that he probably has the advantage in the matchup overall, but I do have the tools needed to win games, even in game 1 if I know how to play the match properly. I think the post board games are considerably better for me (maybe 50-50), but still come down to naya hitting one of a few specific cards – a typical moderately aggressive hand really won’t cut it.
I would assume that the U/W decks 4 main deck tectonic edges and masses of card drawing will make it heavily favoured against valakut. I think the mixture of life gain and discard should make this a pretty easy match for vampires too. I would guess jund would be a bit vulnerable as it’s a little slow, but given a fairly aggressive hand with a blightning or two, I’d guess at it having a shot at maybe 40% of the games.
I think Matt’s on the money when he says the tier 1 decks can all come with board for it, but I think all of them apart from jund actually have some key cards main deck. It looks to me like the valakut deck won’t have the consistency it needs to be a tier 1 deck, but I’m sure it will have favourable matches against a lot of the tier 2 decks.

